Survey 8 results are in

The results from the 8th (and final) metro survey of 2013 have been released.

It's the end of an era for Nielsen after 66 years of supplying radio audience measurement to the industry. Next year GfK will takeover.
 

The analysis is below.

See the Survey 8 Washup from SCA's Craig Bruce, ARN's Duncan Campbell and dmg's Paul Jackson.

Sydney

Who had a good day?

2CH

It has been a strong end to the year for 2CH, up 40-54 and 65+ and outside of Breakfast all shifts improved. The results appear to be driven by a solid cume increase 40-54 which has helped the averages. A great result for 2CH to end the year on.

2GB

In what is a fantastic survey day for Macquarie, 2GB has also done well. Improvements 55+, declines 40-54, however Alan Jones has remained #1 by an absolute mile. He is on 17.2%, nearly 4% ahead of a strong-finishing Adam Spencer on 702. 

Every shift on 2GB was up in today's result, there will be champagne flowing in Pyrmont today with the duopoly performance.

Triple M

It isn't a big jump, but it will be enough for SCA to be pleased with the Triple M Sydney end to 2013. Breakfast is off slightly, however all other shifts improved, and the station saw a good jump 40-54 to move to the #1 commercial position in that demo; narrowly behind 702 for top honours.

Overall, in a tight market, SCA will be pleased with Triple M Sydney today.

702

An excellent result. Driven by a massive jump in Breakfast courtesy of the departing Adam Spencer, and that has flowed through the day. Increases were right in target, the demo's look very strong.

702 ends the year on a 10.2% overall, a clear #2 (behind 2GB), and everyone at ABC will celebrate that, perhaps the only person nervous about it might be Robbie Buck who has a bit to live up to!

Triple J

Like its sister station, Triple J has ended 2013 well. Up in every demo under 55, up in every daypart, and a great way to end the year considering they are now leading into what is traditionally their strongest ratings period, the first quarter of the calendar year.

Who had a tough day?

2UE

Following a very difficult year of ratings, 2UE has ended the year 1% under where it ended the 2012 survey year. Down in nearly every demographic, and down in every shift. Concerningly for Fairfax, 2UE's cume (287,000) is only around 40,000 ahead of NewsRadio and Classic FM, indicating the market may simply not be even sampling the station anymore. This would mean even with product improvements, growth may go unnoticed by the market.

2Day

2day has had a tough result, with the station declining 1.1% overall, and seeing falls 18-24 and with teens, however a great jump 25-39. 2Day is a clear #1 in that demographic.

The expected Breakfast 'farewell bounce' didn't happen, with Kyle & Jackie O falling by 0.8% but still ending 2013 over 3% ahead of any other FM Breakfast show in Sydney.

Post-breakfast, there were declines of 1%+ in each daypart on 2Day, so despite the 25-39 result, overall a tough day for 2Day, although it should be acknowledged that the station remains in the #1 FM position overall.

Mix

Mix 106.5, in its last ever survey under that brand, had a poor result. Mix has fallen to be the lowest ranked commercial FM station on 5.0%, narrowly ahead of Triple J. The demos are largely flat, aside from 25-39 where they shed 1% to slip to the 5th ranked FM position.

The dayparts didn't fare much better, with Sami & Yumi ending their time at Mix on a 3.3%, equal lowest ranked commercial show in Sydney. All other dayparts fell, aside from Drive which improved slightly, however remains in last (FM) place.

Smooth

After some strong recent results, smooth has finished the year with a significant decline, down 1% overall. However, it remains ahead of WSFM (by 0.1%), and has held the #3 FM position, so a 'tough' day should be considered through that context.

Still, Smooth took a hit 40-54 and 55+, and they will want to turn that around next year. The dayparts were off a little prior to drive, where from drive onwards Smooth suffered 2%+ declines in share.

Despite the end to 2013, dmg will look back at 2013 overall as a great year for Smooth.

Who had a non-eventful day?

Nova 96.9

Nova was flat overall, and whilst it declined slightly 25-39, it did grab the #1 position 18-24 off 2Day. Breakfast was flat, and held #2 FM overall, whilst daytimes were largely flat, or back a little. The most movement was at nights where Nova fell by nearly 2%.

Perhaps the most signficant aspect of this survey is Nova's cume improving to 885,000, only 9,000 behind 2Day. So in reality, the cumes of the two stations are equal. Nova will see this as a good sign looking ahead for 2014.

WSFM

What ARN would have given for an extra 0.2% overall on WS today, to just sneak ahead of Smooth! Overall a pretty flat result, the demos that matter were flat, the dayparts were flat, not a lot of movement anywhere.

Not only is WSFM beaten 40-54 by Smooth, but Triple M have now jumped both stations in that demo.

Melbourne

Who had a good day?

3AW

3AW just keep performing, Breakfast is #1 by a mile, Mornings by a strong margin, and the rest of the station is very competitive. Overall, 3AW improved marginally to 13.8% to retain the #1 position in what is another consistent, strong result for the cash cow in the Fairfax Radio Network.

Fox

Fox have ended the year well, reclaiming the #1 FM position overall, driven by a big jump 18-24, just edging out Nova for the #1 position in that demo.

The result was helped by a useful Breakfast increase from the departing 'Matt and Jo', who improved 0.5% to 8.3%, narrowly behind Hughesy & Kate, and 1% behind the (now #1 FM) Triple M Breakfast show.

Daytimes on Fox were flat, but drive and nights did well. All said, a pretty good way to end the year for the Fox.

Triple M

Triple M has had a strong result. Whilst overall the station was only up marginally (by 0.1%), it was where they went up that will please SCA. A jump of 2.5 with 25-39's has given them the #1 position in that demo, and a small rise 40-54 has given them the #1 FM position.

Triple M will be #1 25-54, and just watch how quickly the sales team get that message out!

The dayparts have done well; Breakfast ended the year as #1 FM, with daytimes up (afternoons are #1 overall), however they came off a bit in drive. Nights are weak, as they tend to be on rock stations, but overall a strong end to the year for Triple M.

Who had a tough day?

Gold

Gold will be disappointed. They are down in the demos that matter, and down in every daypart. Perhaps what will hurt the most is losing the #1 40-54 mantle to Triple M. Gold's cume improved slightly, so they've clearly been hit with TSL in this book.

Mix

For ARN the news doesn't get better in Melbourne, Mix has ended the year down; and in the key 25-39 demo is now the 5th ranked commercial FM station. All shifts fell, however Chrissie & Jane in Breakfast improved slightly, but remain the 5th ranked commercial FM breakfast show in the market, and well beneath where they ended 2012.

If Mix Melbourne doesn't perform more strongly in 2014, could we see KIIS 1011 launching in Melbourne?

Nova 100

Not the end to the year Nova would have expected, falling (slightly) in each demo under 40, and either falling a little, or remaining flat in each daypart. It is within the margins, so you can certainly argue that Nova is flat, however with the market noise around Hughesy & Kate leaving, they would have hoped to hold the #1 FM position.

Certainly not a bad result, just not the one they'd have expected.

774

Unlike 702 Sydney, 774 has softened in the last survey of the year, influenced by the bookends of Breakfast and Drive which saw significant falls. That said, the station is still #2 overall on a 10.8% share, so really it's all relative!

Who had a non-eventful day?

SEN

On the surface with a decline of 0.7% overall, you'd expect that we might categorise SEN as having a tough day. Particularly given it fell in most demo's and each daypart. However, SEN should be considered through seasonal eyes.

It is, whilst a sports station, essentially an AFL station, and survey 8 is never a happy hunting ground for driving TSL or Cume given the lack of AFL content. Overall, whilst they'd have preferred to not fall, SEN won't be too concerned.

Magic

Magic was largely flat, up a little, but no movements of note. Off the back of the lowest cume of all the Melbourne stations, Magic performs pretty well, and given it's low cost approach it is a nice earner for Fairfax.

Smooth

Smooth was flat. The demo's were flattish, the dayparts were flattish, not much movement at all anywhere. However ending the year on 5.9% gives the station a foundation to build on for 2014, so there won't be any concern with todays result, and dmg will look on 2014 as a successful year overall for Smooth.

Triple J

Triple J was flat as a pancake. No movements of note anywhere, and the end result being a steady result of 5.4% overall.

Brisbane

Who had a good day?

Nova 106.9

An excellent result for Nova, with strong increases throughout 18-64, a very strong #1 18-24, and #1 25-39. With that, Nova holds the #1 18-39 position by a mile. Excluding nights, every daypart improved. 

Overall Nova grabbed back the #1 position from 97.3, improving 1.1% to 13.6%. A great way to end a very successdful year.

Triple J

Triple J has done very well. An overall share of 10.5% sees it rank ahead of every commercial station, excluding Nova and 97.3. It is now well ahead of both B105 and Triple M, and a clear #2 18-39. A fantastic Triple J result in Brisbane.

Who had a tough day?

4BH

4BH, soon to be Magic, hasn't had a great end to the year. Whilst only down a little overall, they did suffer a big fall 55.64 (down 3.2%), and saw daytimes soften. With the impending change to Magic they'll be hoping the undoubted marketing that accompanies that launch will give the station a lift.

B105

It has been a year that B105 will want to put behind them, and this result won't make the year feel any better. B105 is down only slightly overall, but has come off in every daypart (aside from nights) and every demo that counts. Whilst they win teens, they are a long way of the pace 18-24 and 25-39, being badly beaten by both Nova and Triple J.

With the marketing focus in 2014 for SCA likely to be on the new Breakfast shows at Fox and 2Day, the local team at B105 will have their work cut out for them.

97.3

97.3 has been a great performer, and in this survey it remains the #2 FM station, however it has had a tough result to end the year.

The station fell by 1% overall, declining in all dayparts and in most shifts. The top couple of FM stations in Brisbane do tend to bounce around and share the spoils, so 97.3 will be not lose a lot of sleep over today's result, even though they'd have preferred it had been better.

Triple M

Triple M has had a dreadful result to farewell 2013. Down 1% overall with major falls 18-24 and 25-39. Significantly, every daypart declined to a large extent, and the cume for Triple M is now 317,000, the lowest of the FM stations in Brisbane by a long way. A very tough end to the year for Triple M Brisbane.

Who had a non-eventful day?

4BC

4BC won't really care about this result.

In 2014 they have a complete new lineup (right), and all their language in the market will be around talking up 2014, so this result really means nothing. That said, it was flat.

4KQ

As was 4KQ, no major movements anywhere. Despite staying flat on 20.9% in the 55-64 demo, 4KQ is now the #1 commercial station in that demo by over double the 2nd ranked station (4BH).

612

612's result wasn't bad, but it was a bit patchy. Overall best described as flat, albeit with some good increases in the dayparts. You have to acknowledge Spencer Howson in Breakfast who improved to a 15.4% share, to be the leading Breakfast show in Brisbane by nearly 5%.

Adelaide

Who had a good day?

On what hasn't been the greatest survey day for ARN, Adelaide has been their star market. Cruise has had a nice jump of 1.0% to 8.6%, and has finished the year ahead of Triple M and SAFM; great for ARN, embarrassing for SCA; even though the demographic profile means Cruise will have minimal impact on SCA revenues.

Mix is different, it definitely impacts revenue in the market. A very strong end to the year, improving 1.1% to again be the clear #1 station in Adelaide. Whilst they just missed out on #1 25-39, they monster 40-54's, and are #1 overall in every daypart excluding nights.

Who had a tough day?

FIVEaa

FIVEaa has ended the year with a rough survey, losing some of the gains it made last book. Down in most demos, and down in most dayparts, FIVEaa's cume is under pressure at the moment, so with the new lineup in 2014, expect some marketing to come with that. They also fell behind sister station Nova.

Triple J

Not the best day in Adelaide for Triple J, slipping by 0.5% and all in target; their 18-39 result was well down. Triple J's cume was completely flat, they've copped a whack with TSL in this book.

Who had a non-eventful day?

Nova 919

A flat result for Nova, falling slightly overall, despite a big jump 18-24's which was offset by a decline 25-39's. Flat cume, flat TSL, and whilst Nova is a long way behind Mix, they equally are a long way ahead of SAFM and Triple M.

SAFM

SAFM improved 2.2% in 25-39's, but as far as good news goes, that's about where it ends.

The result wasn't terrible by any means, it was just a flat one. With Breakfast (right) on 8.5%, right on station average, and within striking distance of Nova, whoever wins Breakfast in 2014 will win, and we should expect SCA to work Breakfast hard next year.

Triple M

It is a similar story with Triple M; a flat result, albeit copping a decent whack 40-54 which will hurt, and no real movement up or down beyond that. Adelaide is proving a tough market for SCA these days with both brands.

ABC 891

ABC has also been pretty stable, with a few ups and a few downs through the dayparts and demos, but nothing particularly notable. A strong, consistent #2 station overall on a 12.3%, and the biggest win for ABC891 out of this will be the lengthening of the gap between them and FIVEaa, which is now nearly 2%.

Perth

Who had a good day?

Mix 94.5

A strong result for SCA's Mix 94.5, particularly considering they have changed Breakfast shows on the station (albeit a straight swap with Drive).

They have consolidated the #1 psoition overall, and they are likely to be #1 25-64. A great result to end the year for Mix 94.5. (Pic right – Mix breakfast – Clairsy, Shane & Kymba)

Triple J

A strong result for Triple J; improving to 10.4% overall, close to Nova 25-39, equal #1 18-24 and as a bonus a nice jump 40-54. Triple J saw some massive increases in the workday dayparts, and received the magic bullet of cume and TSL improvement in those shifts, which has driven share strongly.

6IX

6IX, whilst they fell slightly overall, and in share across daytimes, will probably be reasonably happy with the result today. The survey sees their Breakfast share starting to align more with the station, jumping by 1% overall to 4.9%, and the growth was driven by 55-64, right in (their presumed) target. Overall, not an amazing result, but probably not a bad one.

Who has had a tough day?

96FM

After what has been a good year, 96FM would have liked to have finished stronger. Down in all dayparts, and down 25-54. Cume for 96FM was up slightly, it is the TSL that caused the declines this book.

Who had a non-eventful day?

Nova 937

Not a lot going on, aside from a massive hit of 9.2% in teens, Nova won't be too concerned particularly given they improved 3.3% 25-39's and are a strong #1 in that demo. Overall though, a pretty decent year for Nova Perth.

6PR

For 6PR, a bit of a nothing result, a few movements within the demos and dayparts; and Breakfast moved up a ranking; moving ahead of 96FM, but overall a flat result to end the year.

92.9

Not a great result to end the year for 92.9, but they would have expected it with a departing Breakfast show. Given that, and given what sounds like a strong Breakfast offering on 92.9 now, the result will be largely inconsequential as they plan for 2014.

One further note; 92.9's cume of 417,000, whilst not where they would want it, is within striking distance of Nova (478,000). Breakfast will be the battleground in 2014. (Pic right – 92.9 breakfast – Heidi, Will & Woody)

ABC720

Whilst ABC720 was off a little overall, none of the losses were in target. Their key demos improved, and their dayparts held up pretty well, so whilst not a lot to see here, certainly nothing that will cause any concern.